The Butterfly Effect: How seemingly small moves change the NBA.

The Butterfly Effect is a concept that describes how seemingly small and insignificant changes in a system can lead to drastic changes later down the line.

This concept has been observed all over the world for centuries and has been connected to various important world events. There is no telling how present actions may evolve in the future, and this goes for anything. Your actions, no matter what you do, can cascade over time into vastly different outcomes.

There is no better example of the results of the Butterfly Effect than the NBA. Certain events, such as injuries, trades, or signings, can lead to totally different and unexpected outcomes. There are countless times in NBA history where small occurrences have a ripple effect that changes the NBA.

There is one particular event that cannonballed into two trades that shaped the NBA today, and it all started on August 1st, 2014.

The Butterfly Effect in action:

How it all started:

On August 1st, 2014, at a Team USA basketball scrimmage, Indiana Pacers star Paul George suffered an open tibia-fibula fracture on his right leg, ruling him out for nearly the entire 2014-15 season.

In this lost season, the Pacers' core diminished severely, with key pieces such as Lance Stephenson, Roy Hibbert, and David West either leaving the team or declining due to age. They had gone from a top threat in the East to being a rebuilding team looking for top draft picks.

This current standing clashed with what Paul George had hoped for, which was to be a championship contender. The Pacers even had opportunities to push for a championship core, including a potential trade for Anthony Davis, which was declined by the Pacers because they didn't want to pay him.

The Last straw came when Paul George's agent found out that the Pacers were quietly shopping George around the league. This caused George to request a trade and later be traded to the OKC Thunder in exchange for Domantas Sabonis and Victor Oladipo.

The first perspective:

The Indiana Pacers were back to square one. They had Domantas Sabonis, who was coming out of his rookie season, and Victor Oladipo, a young player bursting with potential. And this potential wasn't just a thought.

Oladipo exploded in his first season with the Pacers, becoming an All-Star, making All-NBA 3rd team, winning Most Improved Player, and making All-Defensive 1st team. He led the Pacers to the 5th seed in the East, and even took prime LeBron James to 7 games.

This glory was short-lived, however. Oladipo suffered a ruptured quadriceps tendon in the 2018-19 season, an injury that marked the end of his prime.

Not all was bad, though, as Domantas Sabonis also blossomed, becoming an all-star in the 2019-20 season, significantly rising his trade value as a young star. His trade value rose enough, in fact, that he was later traded to the Sacramento Kings in exchange for Tyrese Haliburton and Buddy Hield.

This trade secured the future of the Pacers, as Tyrese Haliburton became a superstar in the league, leading the Indiana Pacers to game 7 of the 2025 NBA Finals.

The second perspective:

The Oklahoma City Thunder officially re-entered their championship window, but this isn't even the main story of the trade.

Paul George had 2 great seasons with OKC, including a top-3 finish in both MVP and DPOY voting. Unfortunately, a lack of depth and a masterpiece from Damian Lillard sealed OKC's future, and Paul George was traded after his peak season to the Los Angeles Clippers, in exchange for Danilo Gallinari, budding young guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and 5 1st-round picks.

This trade is what set the stage for a new NBA.

The Clippers had a few solid seasons with Paul George and Kawhi Leonard, but were never able to reach the top.

For the Thunder, it was a different story.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, over the next few years, developed into a superstar, winning 2 straight MVP Awards. Using one of the picks from the Clippers, the Thunder drafted Jalen Williams, who developed into an All-NBA player. And finally, the few years before these player developments, the Thunder didn't win very many games, leading to them getting a top pick in the 2022 NBA draft and later drafting Chet Holmgren, who developed into an All-Star and DPOY candidate.

The Thunder now had a 3-star core, including a potential all-time great point guard. This core, along with incredible depth, pushed the Thunder to the 2025 NBA finals, in which they matched up against the Indiana Pacers, led by Tyrese Haliburton.

The Outcome:

This outcome is a perfect example of the Butterfly Effect.

Two teams, two cores, both built from trading one player.

The top teams in the NBA are both a cause and effect of one another, all starting from a bad landing in a 2014 Team USA scrimmage.

A single injury in 2014 eventually snowballed, indirectly leading to the creation of the 2025 NBA Finals matchup.