Pre-Genesis Protocol
Purpose: Identify foreseeable second- and third-order harms prior to or during enforcement.
Key Findings (Foreseeable Effects)
Second-Order Effects
Displacement, not resolution: Individuals move to less visible or more dangerous locations when enforcement exceeds shelter capacity.
Third-Order Effects
System churn: Repeated citations lead to municipal court involvement, outreach court saturation, and recurring instability.
Why This Was Foreseeable
Local creation of Outreach Court implicitly acknowledges cyclical enforcement harms.
What an AI-Assisted Foresight System Would Have Flagged
Policy text analysis: Broad enforcement authority without capacity conditions.
Priority Risks
High recidivism among unhoused individuals
Unsafe displacement locations