Human Nature Does

We are constantly told that “history repeats itself.” But history can’t literally repeat itself. Every moment in history has different people, different governments, different technology, different economic situations, and different circumstances. What we really observe are repeated patterns of human behavior. Centuries apart, people still respond to fear, ambition, humiliation, prosperity, greed, faith, tribal allegiance and the yearning for security in startlingly familiar ways. History is always in flux, but human nature evolves much more slowly. It is frequently believed that “History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes.” This phrase is typically credited to Mark Twain; however, there is no evidence that Twain ever said these precise words. This approach is still helpful in that it separates repetitive events from repeating patterns. Rome does not come back. Nazi Germany is not coming again. The Great Depression doesn't come back. But political instability, economic dread, propaganda, popular fury, charismatic leadership, and institutional distrust can return under quite different circumstances. Look at Hitler and Mussolini. Although their countries, beliefs, personalities or routes to power were not comparable, both exploited troubled societies. Poverty, political strife, nationalism, fear, violence and a loss of faith in existing institutions opened the way for authoritarian forces. The lesson is not that all strong political leaders are another Hitler or Mussolini. Such parallels often do a disservice to serious historical analysis. A better question is what circumstances lead ordinary people to embrace as legitimate political conduct which they had previously thot illegitimate. Another example of the same general idea, but of a very different kind, is Franklin Roosevelt. The Great Depression created a huge popular demand for government intervention. Millions were unemployed, bankrupt, impoverished and uncertain. Millions of Americans embraced a vastly expanded federal role. Roosevelt was not Hitler or Mussolini, and to equate them would be a historical absurdity. The relevant analogy is the way people behave when they are in crisis. People are more willing to tolerate increased government action in times of crisis than in normal times. Another example from current times is the political ascension of Donald Trump. Trump did not invent all the grievances that gave rise to his political movement. Distrust of Washington, anger at political elites, concern about immigration, economic distress, cultural conflict, globalization, and eroding confidence in major institutions were already present. Trump recognized these frustrations and gave them political expression. To support or oppose him is to examine the people and conditions around him, not to research Trump himself in an effort to comprehend how he rose. This is where history enters in. Let us stop projecting historical characters on to present politicians, and compare conditions, incentives, institutions, and human emotions. When people are terrified, what rights are they ready to give up for security? “When institutions lose credibility, then who do you trust? And what happens when political opponents become adversaries rather than fellow citizens? What happens to constitutional restrictions when leaders convince their supporters that the nation’s very survival depends on their personal leadership? The Bible takes the problem to an even deeper level. “[T]he thing that hath been, it is that which shall be; and that which is done is that which shall be done: and there is no new thing under the sun.” Ecclesiastes 1:9 That does not mean that the same occurrences have to occur repeatedly. It perceives recurrences in human existences. The heart is deceitful above all things, and desperately wicked: who can know it? (Jeremiah 17:9) The real difficulty is in Scripture, in human nature itself. Technology doesn’t solve that problem.” Instead of scrolls we use smartphones, instead of horses we travel by airplane, instead of meeting solely in town squares, we connect in social media. We still establish tribes, seek power, dread the enemy, follow charismatic leaders, rationalize evil, protect our own groups, and criticize the other groups. The human race still knows courage, compassion, sacrifice, loyalty, faith, and repentance. The instruments we use have changed drastically, but the moral fight within humanity is recognizable. That’s the actual importance of learning history. History cannot tell us exactly what will happen tomorrow. Nor does one historical similarity indicate the same event will follow. It provides us with something more practical: millennia of proof of what humans have done under fear, affluence, oppression, freedom, conflict, peace, scarcity, abundance, good leadership and corrupt leadership. We don't study the past because yesterday is going to happen again. We study the past because knowing how people acted yesterday might help us see what people are doing today. History does not repeat itself since you can’t go back to the same spot in time. But human nature leaves its familiar traces on every generation. The names, the nations, the leaders, the technologies, the circumstances vary, but fear, pride, greed, ambition, faith, courage, sacrifice, tribalism, and the thirst for power are recognizable. So perhaps the greatest lesson of history is not to learn how to foretell the future. It's learning to see human patterns early enough to make smarter decisions before those patterns lead to familiar results.